January 15, 2009

Oh, dear…

Filed under: Uncategorized — Lydia @ 11:21 pm

Honestly, I’ve stayed away from the global warming nonsense this year. I didn’t want to hear people being convinced that anthropogenic global warming was a hoax because this year is fricking cold because it would piss me off almost as much as the people declaring that anthropogenic global warming was totally true and happening RIGHT NOW AND WE ARE AT A CRISIS, I TELL YOU, A CRISIS two years ago when the East Coast was warm even as I was getting buried under snowstorm after snowstorm in New Mexico. (*Almost* as much because there’s nothing like being told that it’s really warm when you’re snowed in for the fourth time in a winter to tick you off….)

But I got curious. And stupid, I guess. And I stuck my nose out.

I predicted most of the responses–the smugness of those who doubted all along, the sense of betrayal of those who had been convinced by local short term data who are now unconvinced by local short term data, the declarations of stupidity of everyone else from those who have never wavered in their belief, etc., etc. I even predicted two of the major response of the scientific establishment. Climate scientists have been making completely baseless and ridiculous predictions–unfortunately, the hit rate of year-ahead predictions has always been rotten, the scientific models about equaled by the Farmer’s Almanac, but this didn’t deter climatologists from trying to outdo one another with predictions of incredible warming for the next few years–and now there are various forms of ferocious back-pedaling, the most common of which is the contemptuous comment that they really didn’t say any such thing and that the public was just too stupid to understand them. (You know, it’s actually pretty hard to misunderstand a guy, even if he’s wearing a bad suit and has a lot of degrees, when he says that the next few years are going to be warmer than we’ve ever seen before….) The other response has been increasing noise about “climate change.” See, it isn’t “anthropogenic global warming” anymore. It’s “climate change.” This new word keeps these serious scientists from being burdened by trivial things like making predictions that can be disproven, which may have appearance of a handicap of going against one of the major tests of whether a given assertion is a scientific theory but has the benefit of them never having to be wrong because no matter what happens, climate’s gonna change, and they could say that the aliens are doing it an no one could show otherwise.

But one response I didn’t expect really had me laughing. Some major guru climatologist was quoted as sneering that this winter really isn’t cold. See, we. the common folk, just think it is, and we’re stupid, because we can’t remember back very far. If this winter happened in the 1980s, we would know it was actually a WARM winter. We’re just all confused because the last couple of winters have been so warm that it has overloaded our little brains. We should listen to the scientists. They’ll tell us whether it’s hot or cold, and we shouldn’t worry our little heads about it.

This leaves me wondering if he’s really that stupid or if he thinks that we are. Funnily enough, I think most people where it normally never snows really are bright enough to tell whether or not it’s snowing outside. And I think ranchers desperately trying to keep their cattle from freezing to death can distinctly remember NOT doing this in 1985. And I think that gardeners here whose camellias are freezing (dammit) know full well that the last time that happened was in the 70’s. It’s funny how people really can tell when their 20+-year-old oleander or orange tree up and dies. It’s not exactly the kind of think you get confused about. And yet that’s exactly one of the lines that NOAA is trying to pull right now.

Come ON, people. No one’s THAT stupid.

But then again, a warm year–even a not-very-cold-winter–is what the land data are saying. So what else can they do but stand by it? Many people who have come to doubt anthropogenic global warming have begun with questions about these data, wondering about the effects of urbanization, the placement of instrumentation, and the discontinuance of rural weather stations on the data set, among other things. So when the American scientific establishment has thrown its weight so unreservedly behind the accuracy of the measurements, I suppose it feels it has no choice but to back them up even when they are patently ridiculous.

This cold winter tells us jack about long term climate change, of course. Even the weather of five or ten years, despite the silly claims of some, can tell us very, very little. But when the instruments that a theory relies upon tell us that cold is actually really warm, and more faith is put on these instruments than the evidence…..

By the way, you ranchers in Montana? You just think that your great-grandfathers were ranchers, too. Well, they couldn’t have been, because our data shows that the cattle would have all been dead.

Wait. What’s science supposed to be again? I seem to keep forgetting….

I am reminded of an exceptionally nerdy moment of my youth, and I wish to say:

THERE ARE FOUR LIGHTS!

Recycling and the disposable society

Filed under: Uncategorized — Lydia @ 6:48 pm

There’s an interesting article in the NYT on recycling here. It’s not wrong. Even if you think every effort is worth it to preserve the environment, a rational person will recognize that resources are finite and so should be directed to the most efficacious action. I do think some of the content is excessively bleak–for example, most metal recycling is good, and paper recycling is generally cost-saving as well. But most Americans are so trained with the idea that recycling is Good that you need a strong tone to counteract that.

But the existence of a disposable society itself is something that the article doesn’t examine and that few people think about. It’s actually something that’s pretty new in civilization–that is, cultures that have cities, writing, and farming.

Now, hunting and gathering cultures generally have a lot of waste, per capita, compared to, say ancient Rome or early modern London. Yeah, yeah, we’ve all heard the nonsense about how the American Indians used every part of the buffalo–but that’s all it really is: nonsense. The truth is that the tribes that hunted buffalo (a much smaller subset of Amerindians than the sweeping statement usually credits) used as much as the buffalo as they had a use for. If hunting was easy, they ate the yummiest bits and left the rest to rot. If buffalo were scarce, then they ate what was edible, used whatever other bits they needed…and left the rest to rot.

Remember the hunts that involved chasing migrating buffalo off cliffs by the dozens, if not hundreds? The same textbook that spouted the Indian-as-nature’s-child propaganda probably talked about those, too. The waste involved in such hunting practices was appalling to the Europeans who first witnessed it–in highly agricultural areas, like western Europe, meat was too expensive and involved to much work to waste it so freely. (Somehow, this impossibility of reconciling the fake Indian who has a deep reverence for the sacredness of nature and makes propitiatory prayers to the spirit of every animal he killed with the Indian who drives herds off cliffs never bothers textbook writers. This is, of course, because the Indian of one’s textbooks isn’t a person at all but a symbol that was first co-opted by romantic Victorians and then by the environmental movement.)

This example can be generalized to the statement that people in hunter-gatherer/hunter-farmer pre-urban societies typically used whatever they had a use for (animal or otherwise) and ditched the rest. Let’s take our pre-Columbian plains Indian again–this time a real one. Yes, you could make containers from the intestines, clothes and shelter from the hide, needles from the bones, etc. But you only have a use for a certain number of containers, and there are a lot more bones than you need for needle-making. These societies generally had limited trade. Luxuries could be traded hundreds of miles, even thousands at times. Culture-critical objects, such as flint, would be traded long distances, too. But there was no trade of ordinary, commodity-type goods. You don’t see the Irquois loading up caravans of corn and taking back stacks of buffalo hide. So whatever couldn’t be used in the place it originated was, essentially, thrown away. Buffalo might make the best needles on the continent, but you’re not going to see a buffalo-bone-needle-making industry buying up all the unused buffalo bones to export them across North America. There isn’t a sufficient population density to create a market, and there isn’t a sufficient consistent surplus of food to allow this kind of specialization, either.

Once you start getting cities, though, you start getting a population that specializes occupationally and that engages in increasingly complex trade routes among various sufficiently populous markets. So suddenly the intrinsic value of buffalo bones for needles could, theoretically, launch a real industry. Not only can almost everything potentially have a use, but there is now a market for those uses.

There is almost no such thing as garbage in such a society. In pre-industrial societies objects are generally little chemically changed from their original states unless burnt or eaten, which makes them very easy to reuse. Metal can be reshaped. Wood can be reused until it is reduced to fuel. Ashes and manure–include human–enrich the fields. Clothing could be shredded and reused in clothing or, later, paper. Bones made glue. Even dog poop had its uses in tanning, and human urine was used in a number of different processes. There was almost nothing that wasn’t either biodegradable or reusable–or both.

This isn’t to say that pre-industrial civilizations are ecologically morally superior to modern society. Soot from cities could blight the plants and even change the weather in an area. Rivers were more polluted that we can really understand today. Farming practices permanently damaged the fertility of the earth–and much of this even happened pre-civilization and continued long into urban ages. (Most of Greece’s topsoil is now at the bottom of the Aegean, while Britain’s moors are damaged land caused by massive loss of fertile topsoil after severe deforestation in the bronze age.) Systematic efforts to exterminate undesirable animals were undertaken, and great areas of forest were clearcut in efforts to improve the land for human habitation. But despite this, the level of recycling was nearly complete. Baskets and ceramics were fairly disposable, but few other things didn’t continue to have a value that entire groups of people took advantage of.

As I’ve already mentioned, the ease of reuse is one part of the equation. The existence of markets was another. There’s a third, though, and it’s the relationship between the value of human labor and the value of material goods. Compared to human labor, pre-industrial goods are very expensive. This means that it was worth the time of the rag-and-bone man to not only collect various bits of recyclable trash but to go to the trade entrance, knock on the door, wait for a servant to answer, come in to see what the household had to offer, negotiate a price for it, and then haul it away. This also meant that the base price for things was so expensive that they had to be made to really last or they would be prohibitively expensive to buy in the first place!

The life of a fine 16th-century coat might look like this:

-First, it was made for a gentleman as his finest coat for a sum of 1L, 5s, who wore it for ten years, until his death.
-It was willed to his son, valued at 1L, who wore it for a further ten years, and then passed it on to his manservant after removing the gold buttons and any other valuable bits, at this point valued at 3s.
-The manservant used it for fifteen more years. Finally, it was too worn to be considered suitable to his station, and so it was cut down for his eldest son, the scraps being used for cleaning or sold as rags.
-His sons wore it in succession for six years, until even the youngest hung two inches out of the sleeves, and so it was sold to an old-clothes dealer.
-It continued to be bought by housewives for their children, made over, and resold to old-clothes dealers for another 20 years, until it was either so small or so worn out that even the poorest couldn’t find a use for it, and it went to the bone-and-rag man.

Most of the wool that left the stream of use was literally worn away over time by its wearers.

But all this changed with industrialization. Gradually, goods became cheap compared to labor. This meant that the value of used goods plummeted, while goods were made of flimsier materials to make them even cheaper so that their design could follow the most rapidly fluctuating trends of fashion. This further reduced their resale value, as goods simply did not last as long anymore. Old-clothes men complained that readymade clothing was as cheap as anything they could sell, while old clothing just couldn’t hold together well enough to be attractive to buyers, and men who repaired the woven seats of chairs bemoaned the fact that a whole new chair costs little more than their services.

This changeover is marked particularly in the works of Mayhew and his near-contemporaries. Probably one of the most remarkable changes was in the services of the ash-men, or garbage collectors. At the time that Victoria took the throne, companies competed to give the highest bids for the privilege of collecting the trash of various London districts. Teams of women and children sifted through the piles, separating the various components for sale, while the bulk was sold to farmers who were engaged in land reclamation projects in the fens. Fifty years later, they were competing, not to pay for the trash but to be paid for removing it. The demand had collapsed, and disposing of the waste had become a matter of cost, not profit. Though the factors at play were independent of most of the issues causing the increase in throwing goods away, the result was typical of what was happening in dozens of areas of life at the same time. In the 1830s, England was a society with very high rates of reuse. By the 1880s, fashion had become democratized, a new standard of durability was accepted, and the disposable society was very much the rule. America and other Western nations soon followed suit. It is the silent birth of consumer culture and disposability that is so often missed in studies of the Victorian era simply because most of us cannot understand the existence of a society that is not like that. But today’s situation is actually the exception in civilized societies, not the rule–which might explain some of the anxiety that we have about our trash and the irrationality that we approach it with. Our waste is, really, a kind of bizarre quirk of history, and we may be responding to it in the context of the rest of human history without even being fully aware of it.

The labor/goods cost ratio is even lower today than it was in the late 1800s. Additionally, today, many of our manufactured goods are either made of materials that are hard to reuse or made of a complicated set of materials that are too hard to separate even though the elements might be usable. Working against this, though, are issue of scale, population density, and convenience of markets, which mean that, paradoxically, it is we who use practically every part of the cow to an extent that the plains Indians of 600 years ago could not have conceived.

Don’t get me wrong…

Filed under: On the Web — Lydia @ 2:03 pm

I love several of Apple’s products. But this? This is hilarious.

BTW, I have a laptop now, so I should be online for real now!

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